Rise of smart machines and AI future, How AI will revolutionize jobs – Sachin Mandloi

Artificial intelligence will certainly change the world, for better and for worse only time will tell — and we need to be prepared for this change.

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We all know what robots are ? For many people it is a visual of a machine which imitates a human for example the androids in Star Wars, The terminator or Star Trek.  In modern world we take help of many mechanical robots such as lifts, cars or even traffic signals. These all are mechanized machines designed and programmed to perform certain tedious and repetitive tasks to make our life easier.

Technologies such as Robotics combined with automation which now includes and have Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning added to it has been shaping our future and shaping the world since past many years.

If my memory serves me right, It is said that the first known robot was created somewhere around  350-400 BC by a mathematician “Archytas”, Who is a renowned name in mechanical engineering and is popularly known as the father of mechanical engineering.   He built the first mechanical machine out of wood and used steam to power the movements of the machine. However the word or the term  “robot” was first used in 1921 by Czech play writer “Karel Capek” in his play R.U.R. (Rossum’s Universal Robots). The word robot is known to be derived from Czech word for “forced labor.”

Up until quite recently, all industrial robots could only be programmed to carry out a repetitive series of movements. Using the Robotic process automation (RPA) and Intelligent Process Automation (IPA). The businesses worldwide have automated the manufacturing processes and plants and after introducing robotics to their manufacturing plants, the businesses were able to replace the unskilled or semi-skilled workers with robots. It is estimated that Robots may steal as many as 800 million jobs in the next 13 years. In other words by 2030 800 million of today’s job will no longer be there, or 800 million people will lose their jobs by 2030 because of robotics.

While work that is tedious and repetitive will get automated fully sooner or later for sure thus eliminating junior level and middle level jobs, but what about senior level jobs. What will happen to the designations such as managers, directors or even CEO’s who are responsible for the overall growth and leadership of the organisation. Is there a possibility of automating them as well? The answer in my opinion is certainly a big YES, the machines will soon have ability to think and act like human and take winning righteous decisions.

Do you remember Deep Blue? Deep blue was an IBM computer which defeated the ruling word chess champion of that time “Garry Kasparov” in 1997. After defeating the chess champion it captured the attention and imagination of the world and made people speculate what else machines can do or can not do. Exactly after twenty years in 2017 AlphaZero  AI computer program won against the most popular and champion chess program after having taught itself how to play in under four hours.

Starting from random play, and given no domain knowledge except the game rules, AlphaZero achieved within 24 hours a superhuman level of play in the games of chess and shogi [a similar Japanese board game] as well as Go, and convincingly defeated a world-champion program in each case,” AlphaZero won or drew all 100 games.

So what Is happening here? How a computer is able to think and decide what to do next ?

Before I can answer that, let’s first analyse how the human mind works? The human brain is unfettered and infinitely elastic and as a consequence, thinking is imaginative and boundary less. New discoveries lead to learning and humans often capture this knowledge. The humans process information about the world around them in terms of concepts that have already been learned. They also have a unique ability to combine concepts to create richer models of the world around them. This basic human ability is acquired over a period of time primarily through observation and feedback.

Let me share my experience with you, I have been running my offices virtually without being physically present in the office since last couple of years with the help of some tools which I have developed for myself for experimental purpose. These tools are based on emerging AI and machine learning algorithms and technologies and let me confess they have proven to be a big boon to me. If nothing else they have yielded me few hours or my time which now I can utilize elsewhere doing even better things.

So what is Machine learning in simple terms, the machine learning is nothing but a  sub subject of computer science and artificial intelligence (AI) that focuses on the design of systems that can learn from and make decisions and predictions based on data which is available to them, just like how we human reach to any situation or scenario based on our past experiences in lift. Machine learning enables computers to act and make data-driven decisions rather than being explicitly programmed to carry out a certain task in a certain manner.

According to a new research paper from MIT and Michigan State University,  A new automated machine learning system can analyze data and come up with a solution 100x faster than humans. If this is true, which certainly is then why do we need humans at work place ?

Having said that and despite concerns about humans losing their jobs to automation, I personally think that future of humans and future of jobs has never been so upbeat. The trends at work place, the trends in our lives have always changed and they will continue to change.

While computer are busy trying to solve today’s problems, there will be always be new problems and humans will be required to help machines in solving those problems. The new generation jobs will be more focused in teaming up with these machines and help bridging the gap between machines and humans so both of them can live with each other for betterment of our lives. The new generation jobs will be all about man-machine teaming.

Artificial intelligence will certainly change the world, for better and for worse only time will tell — and we need to be prepared for this change.

I am very excited and optimistic about the positives impacts of AI in our lives and the word we live in. The positive vibes comes from examples like self-driving vehicles that could prevent thousands of fatal car crashes each year. But with the introduction of self driving cars, any one with a little economic knowledge can predict that this will also fundamentally change the world’s economy, killing millions of jobs and potentially causing an economic revolution larger than we can predict. So what should we do about it? well there is not much we can do about this as of now, let the time and machines answers this question.

For those who are techies and interested in AI and Machine learning algorithms, I will try and post a simple guide for building a simple chess AI in my next post. Until then good bye and take care. Thank you for reading.

 

Sources:

http://news.mit.edu/2017/auto-tuning-data-science-new-research-streamlines-machine-learning-1219

https://www.ibm.com/blogs/think/2017/05/deep-blue/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/12/06/entire-human-chess-knowledge-learned-surpassed-deepminds-alphazero/

 

 

Future of bitcoin, cryptocoin and cryptocurrency by Sachin Mandloi

Bitcoin prices have risen more than 400% this year yeilding one of best YTD return for an investor, but where bitcoin is headed from here ?

When I woke up this morning and I realized that I am a bit wealthier than I was before I went to sleep last night.

Reason? Bitcoin exchange price crossed $5000 marked for the first time in bitcoin history.  Bitcoin prices have risen close to 400% this year and have yielded magnificent year-to-date (YTD) results for any investor in bitcoin.  This new high of more than $5000 was expected because of a large number of factors including the technological improvements which bit coin recently implemented and also growing interest of investors and businesses in bitcoin and crypto currency. I personally would not be surprised in bitcoin surpasses this new high and sets a new fresh high level of $6000 by the end of this year.  This looks more possible because of the November tech updates for bitcoin which are promised to go live somewhere in the November this year.

Crypto currency I personally believe is the biggest change for this century or I would say several past centuries. While there are people who are in favour of this and there are people are against this, who would be proven right, only time can tell.

cryptocurrency space has been gaining significant attraction and become more and more visible. A large number of businesses have been exploring the potential uses of these digital assets, and many companies have already started to hold initial coin offerings (ICOs) just like initial public offerings (IPO). As of now this all looks nothing more than innovative gimmicks to raise the funds and enter into the untamed crypto currency space.

From Apple to Ebay, From Amazon to other e-commerce websites they all have started to accept the existence of bitcoin and crypto currency. If my memory serves me right, there are musicians who are selling their albums for bitcoins. Are we In the middle of a change which would define the way we transact in future?

We have not seen how the world was when people used to barter for a living, we were not there when people used to transact using gold, silver and copper coins, we were not there when the first currency coin was introduced. Also we were not there when the first technology test took place.  If today we consider our lives are good in every terms its all because of the technologies which were put to test a long decades or centuries ago. For example electricity, trains, flights, phones, etc. Imagine our modern life without them. We have accepted all the changes on a mass level.

Having said that in favour of bitcoin of crypto currency, lets also accept the fact that bitcoin and crypto currency is still a emerging technology or trend. For bit coin to become actual modern money it needs to be accepted everywhere for any kind of purchase. Whatever the cryptocurrencies are they must become very simple and  convenient to a layman so that even a layman can use it easily. One of the biggest hurdle for crypto currencies is the time it takes to process the transaction.

As of today, if you want to pay someone using bitcoin it can take up to 60-90 minutes for your payment to get processed.  Nobody will wait for that long when you are in a store buying beers or food or when your car needs a refueling on the move.

This is because bitcoin transactions are authorised or approved by the decentralised network of bitcoin miners. The transactions are pushed in blocks and the maximum size of a block is 1 MB. That means only two or three transactions per second, this numbers is very low when you compares this with VISA or MasterCard where they process 2-3 thousand transactions every second.

However, A widespread global cryptocurrency is still a fantasy. Everybody wants to have a global currency which is liberal and free from the rules and regulations or banks and their charges and also which is freely moveable to any part of the globe without any government regulations.

  • Sachin Mandloi

Declaration: Views expressed by Sachin Mandloi here are his personal views and do not reflect views of the organisations he is working with.

[Important note: I do not recommend any investments in the bitcoin, cryptocoins or tokens. This is very risky as the market and technology which runs this is largely unregulated. If you are considering it, then you should be prepared to lose your entire investment.]

Fintech impact on Indian Economy and Traditional Banking Systems – Sachin Mandloi

India is still waiting for a right Fintech enabler who can bridge the gap between Urban and Rural India and help Mr. Modi’s vision of Digital India

As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts where I Introduced my blog to all, As on today India (Republic of India) consists of two very different India. One is the Modern India which commutes in Metro Trains, waits for Bullets trains and there is another part of India mainly rural India where people still do not have basis necessities such as electricity, water, roads to connect them to other villages, etc. The Rural population in India according to the World Bank and Trading Economic data was 67% in 2016. The data also stats that in 2016 India’s total population was 1,326,801,576. That means approximately 88,89,57,055 People were living in Indian villages last year.

If the population of the world was 7432663275 in 2016, then 888957055 amounts to 11% of total world population living in Rural India.  I am not trying to be a mathematician here, neither trying to represent or prove any numbers. I just want to present a simple statistical fact; a large portion of the world’ current population is in India and within India a large number and percentage of people live in Rural India what is being known as developing India.

What this means ? Well, the above number could mean a lot to a different people from different perspective, but one thing is sure that they do attract a wider audience around the globe for aplenty of reasons.

With India’s Prime minister Narendra Modi’s digital India campaign on the roll, which wants to transform the entire ecosystem of public services through the use of information technology, the vision is also to transform India into a digitally empowered society and knowledge economy which also includes transacting through digital mediums.

While this India’s rural market is still unorganised, unbanked, out of the financial accounting systems and many people do not have the bank accounts yet. The first step towards enabling them to transact digitally should be to bring them in the banking channel. Mr. Prime minister has made numerous efforts and launched various schemes to tempt people/force people to open a bank accounts. Demonetisation, revoking subsidies of people who do not have a bank account or directly submitting the government subsidies in to the bank accounts, zero Balance Account through PM Jan Dhan Yojana, etc are the schemes and government policies which literally forces/tempts people to open a Bank account. The bank account scheme is a pet project of the PM, and the PM had asked both government and private banks  support the plan.

Mr Modi announced the programme in his first Independence Day speech on 15 August after sweeping to power with a landslide victory in general elections in May, four years have passed since then and I do not see much difference on the ground apart from some voices in favour and some in oppose, while the ground reality and data says otherswise. While the government banks have their own financial/institutional/etc  hurdles to solely work on this, the private banks are too busy keep their existing customer base happy and attracting new corporate customers where the big money is. Either of them do have the will and the resources to enable and bring the Rural India to digital platform.

 

The urban India and people carrying debit cards/credit cards also have their own challenges transacting using the digital Money with additional charges levied by banks , everytime they use their card to make a purchase. The GST on Credit Card payments is another ghost which haunts these card users. The digital transactions are not yet user friendly for both shoppers and merchants and there is a lot which needs to be done there in order to facilitate hassle free transactions.

I believe the only way to bridge this gap is through the public/private fintech solutions. FinTech is an industry comprising companies that use technology to offer financial services. These companies operate in insurance, asset management and payment etc. We have witnessed a lot of fintech companies entered in the markets in recent past years and some of them really tried to deliver what was expected from them.

In the competition for India’s financial services future, fintech companies have scored thrice when the traditional banks are still struggling to retrieve the ball they grazed into their own net. It’s just the start of what looks like a blooming tough competition for traditional banks.

Banking had existed when today’s banks were not there and it will exist even if today’s banks don’t, A right financial technology solution can altogether eliminate conventional banking. We see something new in the fintech space every day. Every new introduction is considered to be disruptor but later on it is considered as innovation and an enabler.

There is a long way to go before this gap can be filled and India becomes a true digital nation. The only vehicle which can deliver this is technology which is affordable, simple yet complex enough to handle the peculiar requirements of every Indian citizen and institution in the most cost affordable and convenient way.

 

Sources:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?end=2016&start=2016&view=map

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

http://digitalindia.gov.in/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-28962762

http://www.indiablooms.com/ibns_new/news-details/N/3777/modi-launches-scheme-to-ensure-bank-account-for-everyone.html

 

– Sachin Mandloi

Introduction to Sachin Mandloi’s Blog

Reasons why I chose to make authorship of this blog

This blog is an attempt to capture the voice of the common people, as seen from my eyes. Also a platform to share my views/ideas with respect to the latest happenings around the world specially in today’s fast paced, ever changing technology which drives our life today and effects it has over our daily routines and habits to a larger extent.

The reasons, why I chose to make authorship of this blog public are both personal as well as recent events in the country of my birth India. India, beyond the nation-state it is, is a civilizational-state, its influence on arts, science, religion, governance, trade and foremost spirituality had defined the world history like no other people. Its cultural, social and family institutions have stood the test of time, for the best of human-kind. India has always been the land of miracles from Ancient India to Medieval India, From Medieval India to Early modern India, From Early modern India to Modern India and today India comprises of Modern India and भारत (rural India).

There comes a time in life when people who look up to you wants to hear your ideas or opinions about certain issues/happenings which may concern them. This blog was envisioned about three years ago. In the making of this blog and its message, I discussed with very few people about the authorship of this blog.  To be honest, being anonymous is never my style but on the same time I never enjoyed being in lime light or being in focus. I have always been a king maker (or king of kings) keeping myself grounded with a low profile, made a lot of kings and destroyed a few with my game changer abilities. Let your work speak for you, and when it does you do not need words to speak for yourself. But what about people who have not seen your work or haven’t seen you in action ?

These were the primary reasons for me to start this blog.

The Sachin Mandloi’s blog would be focused mainly around technology world and news but from time to time would take up national/international (global) subjects/issues as well which can or may affect the society based on my personal experience and see If I could contribute to the subject being discussed. Wherever the observations/facts/views/graphics/images would not be my own I shall mention them with source/credit.

Any references of person/s in the blog except those in public space would be only by first name or the names would be changed to respect their privacy.

Any monetary gains from the blog would be given by me to various issues of concern to the society one of them is medical treatment to all street animals and birds, removing them from pain and trying to give them a new and healthy life.